How to stay strong? Business under coronavirus threat
Coronavirus side-effects for the companies: costs cutting, rethinking the supply chains, reshaping the business models. What the managers need to handle the challenges? IMSA Search investigates business in the times of Covid-19.
The Economy
is facing a major turbulence. According to BBC, more than 50 countries have cut
interest rates in the desperate move to strengthen their economies. Governments
imposed restrictions on traveling, introduced citizen lockdown and encouraged social
distancing to avoid spreading the disease. There are closed schools and
factories in more than 100 countries all around the world. Some industries like
airlines, luxury hotels and resorts, along with service providers like bars,
pubs and barbershops have experienced a slowdown on an unprecedented scale.
Although China and Far East countries, who first experienced the coronavirus problems,
report some faint signs of revival. No one knows what is going to happen next
in the world economy. Nevertheless, some are trying to draw conclusions for the
managers of the “new normal” times.
Economy
under the pressure
In the
McKinsey “Covid-19: Implication for business” (March 16th briefing),
the authors distinguish two scenarios that are worth consideration.
The first
one assumed that growth in case counts would be slowed by active social
distancing through a combination of national and local quarantines. These
measures will drive a sharp fall in consumer and business spending until the
end of Q2, inducing a recession. As a result, it takes until Q4 for European
and US economies to see a genuine recovery, and global GDP in 2020 will fall
slightly.
The second
scenario presumed that social distancing and other public-health control
measures would fail, and the financial system will suffer significant distress.
The global economic impact will be severe, approaching the global financial
crisis of 2008–09. GDP contracts significantly in most major economies in 2020,
and recovery begin only in Q2 2021.
Nevertheless, not all analysts are so optimistic. Some are arguing that the economic effects of the outbreak are currently being underestimated, and historical comparisons with SARS, or the 2008/2009 financial crisis are wrong. Nuno Fernandes from IESE Business School (University of Navarra) estimates in his study that “The results show GDP growth will take a hit ranging from 3-5% depending on the country, in a mild scenario. Every extra month of shutdown accounts for approx. 2-2.5% of global GDP growth”. No matter who is right, leaders need to act. Immediately.
How to
prepare your business for the near future?
There are
many actions the companies have already taken. Gallup Managing Director Larry
Emond gathered the strategies and policies for the COVID-19 pandemic among 100
members of the Chief Human Resources Officer Roundtable, an organisation that
includes the CHROs of more than 650 of the world’s largest companies. He learned
that those companies have almost immediately gathered Crisis Management Teams, basically
to put in significant travel restrictions for all the teams. That’s just a
start.
“These
teams are also focused on management protocols, and business continuity plans
to guide current actions and forecast possible responses to future
events,” wrote Emond. It leads to the steps most big companies have taken
facing coronavirus, which are:
- monitoring the business impact to
protect or sustain business functions, - to assess risks to their employees’
physical and financial wellbeing, - introduce new technological
solutions that allow staff members to work remotely, - improve communication techniques and
- organise appropriate training.
Indeed, executives and CHROS have a lot on their plate right now. But the big question is: what are they missing?
These
are the three most common questions business leaders are asking, right now
What kind
of the disruptions can business expect? As analytics from McKinsey pointed out,
“there are three questions business leaders are asking, and a small number
of indicators that can give a clue”. Those questions are:
- How
deep are the demand reductions? - How
long could the disruption last? - What
shape could recovery take?
Answering this question is almost impossible, but there are some indicators to monitor and follow. According to McKinsey, those factors are:
How to
navigate a business during the epidemic of coronavirus?
Knowledge
is the first step to wisdom, but even the best-informed person may be confused
if it comes to choosing the best strategy to lead the company during the time
of crisis. A good leader should think and act across five horizons, named by
McKinsey as: Resolve, Resilience, Return, Reimagination and Reform.
Resolve. A challenge is to address “the
immediate social and mental challenges that Covid-19 represents to the
institution’s workforce, customers and business partners and take basic steps
to protect liquidity”. In short, it means that business leaders have to
get used to making hard choices on almost every level. From setting new rules
for leading remotely, through reinventing supply chains to building consumer
trust in extreme circumstances. There is no place to take a step back and consider
every decision carefully. Time pressure is immense, and stakes are high. The
winners will be those who can act quickly.
Resilience.
“Address near-term cash management challenges and broader resiliency
issues during virus-related shutdowns and economic knock-on effects”. Good
advice is to learn from companies that actually survived a recession. Those
businesses often didn’t have any particular starting advantage, but they
managed to achieve a small lead, and they expanded it over the next ten years.
Return. “Create a detailed plan to
return the business back to scale quickly, as virus evolves and knock on
effects become clearer”. No matter how bad the situation looks right now,
it’ll be over someday. Business leaders have to be ready and prepare to take
action. Return strategy is a document all business leaders need to write right
now.
Reimagination and Reform. “Re-imagine the »next normal«
– what a discontinuous shift looks like and implications for how the
institution should reinvent. Be clear about how the regulatory and competitive
environment in your industry may shift”. Resetting to the normal is
difficult and requires an appetite for big moves. Those who have the strength
and determination to think about future bold moves, despite chaos and
uncertainty they are experiencing at the moment, will conquer the market and
left the competition behind.
